Bitcoin didn’t do very much. The world did.
Few things are staying consistent at the moment, but Bitcoin appears to be one of them. Naysayers also turned face and Lebanon fled to property assets amongst other events. There’s a lot going on outside it would seem.
So sit back, relax and close out June and that pesky financial year with this edition of Analysed.
Bitcoin Market Summary
Bitcoin stayed consistent again this past fortnight, with a few notable deviations in price being the highlights.
Firstly, Bitcoin dipped below the $9,000 USD mark almost as soon as the week started, finding a bottom at $8,971 USD ($13,000) for a moment before exploding back up to $9,500 ($13,800 AUD) on the 16th. This rally died down as Bitcoin relaxed to a week-end price around $9,100 USD ($13,200 AUD), effectively leading to an equilibrium price for the fortnight.
Current prices around the $9,000 mark are a consistent base to stack from, especially when looking back at late 2019 trends. Thoughts of re-visiting March lows should also account for us being in a post-Halving era. Production is twice as scare as it was then.
Traditional Market Overview
The S&P 500 continues to be a volatile behemoth, lumbering to highs of 3,131 on the 23rd of June before dropping -2.42% on Friday 25th to be down -1.8% for the fortnight. This end of week dip will likely result in some hasty economic stimulus during this coming fortnight, because the line is only meant to go up these days.
Lebanon continues to be a quite literal burning beacon for modern day banking collapse, with many of the citizens who are able to fleeing to property in an effort to avoid currency collapse.
Political tensions between India and China have increased dramatically on the back of recent border skirmishes, feeding into global apprehension regarding China. Australia continues to be engaged in a trade war of sorts with the nation as well. These spell interesting times for the global economy.
Australia had a rather eventful fortnight with a +3% gain in the ASX 200. However, analysts are reporting a potential hit to the markets due to escalating COVID-19 numbers, particularly in Victoria. If we see a hit, this may be a pre-show to any events in the US if COVID cases surge. Certainly one to watch.
PayPal Hiring In The Field It Called A “Scam” in 2019
Long-time critics of Bitcoin, payment giant PayPal appear to finally be bending the knee in a rather symbolic victory for the asset if recent job listings are to be believed. Please keep in mind that former CEO Bill Harris is on record calling Bitcoin a scam and “colossal pump-and-dump scheme”.
PayPal have created listings seeking blockchain and cryptocurrency engineers to join their Crypto Engineering team based in Chennai, India. This team is described as being “responsible for new initiatives for PayPal global with focus on agility, time to market and innovation.”
Many speculate that this marks PayPal’s intentions to enter the cryptocurrency market with their own offering rather than offer direct integration of Bitcoin. Any price increase on this is an added benefit, but I doubt it will be the reason we visit the moon.
Every time I come to writing Analysed it seems like there’s another industry heavyweight falling in line – even if you don’t believe in the philosophy, the opportunity cost of not being in this pie is enormous.
It’s for reasons like this that I stack Sats – if you use Amber or own any Bitcoin, you’re ahead of the curve and managed to out-maneuver a company that was worth more than $100 billion in 2018.
Brandon Quittem On 12 Reasons To Buy Bitcoin
On June 18th cryptocurrency proponent Brandon Quittem (@Bquittem) tweeted out a rather subdued (in context of the Bitcoin community) list of reasons to invest. Totalling 12 points, Quittem made the objective case to those who either didn’t know or previously disregarded the breakthrough money – think along the lines of an appeal to Ray Dalio’s Principles.
First and foremost Quittem referred to the obvious appeal to profit – Bitcoin was the best performing asset of the previous decade (2010-2019), having an ROI of more than +8,900,000%. If you can turn $1 into more than $8,900 in less than 10 years, how could you justify not putting even 0.1% of your total investments into such an asset?
Secondly was an appeal to 2020 specifically – you have to go quite a way back in history to see as tumultuous a year as this one. Bitcoin was born from the 2008 Financial Crisis and is at its core designed to counteract chaos as a steadfast and reliable asset. Forgive the out-dated image below and feel free to insert whatever major event you felt best summarised June. I’m predicting asteroids and The Day After Tomorrow by October.
Using the ice hockey analogy of “skating where the puck is going”, Quittem asserts that a small investment into Bitcoin can be considered a fee to learn about the future due to the technological growth around it. This is without considering that historic ROI.
Fourthly, “Bitcoin is an unstoppable force” according to US Congressman Patrick McHenry (@PatrickMcHenry) – Quittem breaks down his reasoning for this in a separate thread, noting network effect and Bitcoin’s decentralised nature amongst other elements.
Fifth – smart money investors already own Bitcoin. See our very first issue of Analysed for a look at Paul Tudor Jones emerging bullishly. Peter Thiel, Nassim Taleb, Dan Tapiero and Twitter’s @jack are amongst others who are bullish.
Six, seven and eight form the crux of Bitcoin’s philosophy. Bitcoin is fair, free from censorship and scarce in a world where things so often aren’t. It’s an appeal to self-sovereignty much like gold, but a government can’t just confiscate it at gunpoint. If you have your keys, you have your freedom.
On his ninth reason, Quittem starts to echo what many seem to be thinking – no empire lasts forever. The “monetary base” of the world changes over time, with the most recent being from Pound Sterling to the US Dollar. Is it perhaps that time again? If so, is Bitcoin part of, if not the next base? Former RBA governor Ian McFarlane gave an interesting speech on the topic back in 1997, and it may be worth a read.
Tenth is simple. Money printer go brrr. Scarcity matters on a long-run, and there will only ever be 21 million actual Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s organic decentralised nature is eleventh – using the analogy of Mycelium, the author asserts that decentralised networks are nowhere near as novel as people believe and that over their 1.3 billion or so year lifetime they’ve become one of the most Lindy systems in existence.
Finally, Quittem declares that good money matters in enabling specialisation and trade long-term – something we’ve not had for longer than some of us here.
Quittem’s closer is one I hear more and more often these days and I believe it’s for good reason.
Fix the money, fix the world.
Highlight Of The Week
The Price Of Tomorrow by Jeff Booth
Jeff Booth’s (@JeffBooth) first book is concise, thought-provoking and implicitly timely.
The crux of Booth’s inaugural release is that technology is deflationary and that deflation is the key to a sustainable and abundant future. He covers everything from the development of artificial intelligence and it’s perceived “Catch 22” in relation to employment to solar efficiency and Moore’s Law beyond computing. Booth ascribes that we are progressing at the fastest rate in history and that we need to embrace the deflationary nature of technology or be destroyed along the way.
While my words likely don’t hold much weight in context of literary review, I can safely say Booth’s words do. This book will be on my shelf for a long time and I feel it will be on yours as well – I’d implore you to read beyond just the text itself.
On a side note; Amber’s own Aleks Svetski also recently let slip that he appeared on the Keiser Report to discuss freedom and independence in the modern era, and just how Bitcoin factors in. I believe this will hold some pretty important parallels with Booth’s book, especially considering the difference in viewpoints. The podcast is expected to go live on the 4th of July.
As alluded to before, 2020 has been a rollercoaster to say the least. Every time I write it seems as though we’ve got too much to discuss. Chaos is all around and we only have so many things we can count to be a constant.
Take a step back if you can, breath in. It might not be much, but that bit of ease and clarity certainly won’t go astray.
Stack Sats and take care,
Jamie Grohman for Analysed by Amber.